Demand driving growth, but economic outlook ‘somewhat clouded’ by supply issues: RBI

Statement 1 is incorrect. Typically, the RBI uses open market operations to sell government securities to drain money from the system and control inflation. Buying government securities would inject money into the system, potentially fueling inflation further. Statement 2 is correct. Selling dollars in the market - If the rupee is rapidly depreciating, the RBI might intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars from its reserves. This increased supply of dollars in the market can help stabilize the exchange rate and slow down the depreciation of the rupee. Statement 3 is correct. Lower interest rates in the US/EU make India a more attractive destination for foreign investment, leading to a large inflow of dollars. This causes the rupee to strengthen (appreciate). To prevent the rupee from appreciating too rapidly and hurting exporters, the RBI buys the excess dollars from the market.

Statement 1 is correct: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates, can impact global capital flows. If the Fed raises interest rates, it can make US investments more attractive, potentially leading to some outflow of capital from India. This could affect demand for Indian government bonds and influence their yield. Statement 2 is correct: The RBI's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing Indian government bond yields. The RBI's actions like setting repo rates, open market operations, and cash reserve ratio (CRR) can affect the overall liquidity in the banking system. Higher liquidity can lead to lower yields, and vice versa. Statement 3 is correct: Inflation expectations and short-term interest rates are important factors for investors when considering the return on government bonds. Higher inflation expectations can lead investors to demand higher yields to compensate for the potential erosion of purchasing power. Similarly, short-term interest rates can act as a benchmark for bond yields. Therefore, all three factors significantly influence the yields of Indian government bonds.

Statements 1 and 3 are correct. Vietnam’s open economic policy of recent years integrating into global supply chains has made the growth success story possible. Vietnam's export-led growth strategy and global integration are among the key factors behind the country's remarkable achievements in growth and poverty. Vietnam was one among the few countries to post GDP growth rate figures in 2020 when the pandemic hit. Vietnam is projected to be the fastest-growing internet economy in Southeast Asia in the next 10 years. Statement 2 is not correct. Vietnam is a one-party communist state, not a multi-party parliamentary democracy. Statement 4 is correct. Thanks to an abundance of low-wage labour, Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew at a compound annual growth in the last decade. As the rest of East Asia developed and wages there rose, global manufacturers were lured by Vietnam's low labour costs and stable exchange rate. Hence, Statement 5 is not correct. According to the Asian Development Bank Report, e-services including digital financial services are at a very nascent stage in Vietnam.

Tight monetary policy is an action taken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to curb overheated economic growth. Central banks employ tight monetary policy when an economy is experiencing rapid acceleration or when inflation, which pertains to overall prices, is escalating too swiftly. Statement 1 is correct. A tight monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve means higher interest rates in the US. This attracts global investors to shift their capital towards US assets for better returns. As a result, there can be capital flight from emerging markets like India to the US. Statement 2 is correct. When capital flows out, the domestic currency tends to depreciate, and global interest rates rise. Firms that have borrowed in foreign currencies through External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) will now face higher repayment costs in rupee terms. Thus, their cost of servicing these loans increases, raising their overall financial burden. Statement 3 is incorrect. Devaluation of the domestic currency actually increases the currency risk associated with ECBs. Since these loans are denominated in foreign currency (like USD), a weaker rupee means firms have to pay more in rupees to repay the same amount of foreign debt. Therefore, devaluation heightens, not reduces, currency risk. NOTE: The given question was dropped by UPSC from the Official Answer Key.

To stop the slide of the Rupee (depreciation), the RBI/Government needs to increase the inflow of foreign currency (USD) or decrease the outflow. Option (a), (b), and (c) are likely measures: They either increase the supply of dollars in the Indian market or reduce the demand for dollars, which helps stabilize the Rupee. Option (d) is NOT a likely measure: An expansionary monetary policy usually involves lowering interest rates. When interest rates fall, the "carry trade" becomes less attractive to foreign investors, leading to capital flight. This increases the supply of Rupee in the market and decreases its value further. To stop a slide, the RBI typically follows a contractionary (dear money) policy to attract capital and curb inflation.

* Statement I- correct: In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, many central banks around the world observed rising inflation. To combat this inflation, they resorted to raising interest rates. This is a well-established monetary policy tool to curb inflation by making borrowing more expensive and encouraging saving, thereby reducing the money supply in circulation.  * Statement II- correct: Central banks are entrusted with maintaining price stability and managing inflation. Raising interest rates is one of the primary instruments they use to achieve this objective. While other factors can influence inflation, central banks do have the ability to significantly impact it through monetary policy measures. Therefore, both statements accurately reflect the role of central banks and their use of interest rates to manage inflation and statement 2 is the correct explanation for statement 1.

Statement 1 is correct: While NBFCs do not have routine, direct access to the Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) like scheduled commercial banks, they can access RBI liquidity indirectly through eligible participants such as Primary Dealers and banks, and through special liquidity windows and RBI operations linked to LAF mechanisms. Statement 2 is correct: Foreign Institutional Investors (now FPIs) are permitted to invest in Government Securities (G-Secs) and Treasury Bills. The RBI has even introduced the Fully Accessible Route (FAR), which allows non-residents to invest in specified government bonds without any investment upper limit. Statement 3 is correct: To develop a robust corporate and government bond market, the RBI and SEBI have permitted Stock Exchanges to set up dedicated debt trading platforms. For example, the NSE's Wholesale Debt Market (WDM) and Retail Debt Market (RDM) provide transparent platforms for these transactions.

* Sterilisation refers to the actions taken by a central bank to offset the impact of its foreign exchange operations on the domestic money supply.  * When a central bank intervenes in the foreign exchange market by buying or selling foreign currencies, it affects the domestic money supply.  * Open Market Operations (OMO) is one of the primary tools used by central banks, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), to conduct monetary policy.  * In OMO, the central bank buys or sells government securities (bonds) in the open market to influence the liquidity in the economy. When the RBI conducts OMO, it impacts the money supply in the economy. If the RBI buys government securities, it injects money into the system, increasing the money supply. To prevent this injection of money from creating inflationary pressures, the RBI engages in sterilisation.  * Sterilisation involves the simultaneous sale or purchase of other securities, typically treasury bills, to offset the impact of the initial open market operation.

The responsibility for maintaining price stability and controlling inflation in India lies primarily with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI formulates and implements monetary policy to maintain price stability and ensure adequate flow of credit to productive sectors of the economy. As the central bank of the country, the RBI uses various tools such as repo rate, reverse repo rate, cash reserve ratio (CRR), and statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) to influence liquidity and interest rates in the economy, thereby affecting inflationary pressures.

* The term "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI), often seen in news reports, refers to a grade of crude oil. WTI is used as a benchmark for oil pricing in North America. * Specifically, WTI is a light, sweet crude oil, meaning it has a low density and low sulfur content. This makes it easier and more desirable to refine into gasoline and other products. WTI serves as one of the main benchmarks for oil prices globally. * West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude are two of the most important global benchmarks for crude oil prices. Brent Index is used as a benchmark for oil pricing globally, including Europe, Asia, and Africa.