Editorials thehindu.com

The U.S. ends Russia oil waiver, implications for India

25 May 2026 Source

Exam Summary

The article discusses the implications for India of the U.S. tightening restrictions on Russian seaborne oil, amidst broader global energy market instability caused by geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia. It highlights India's high dependence on crude oil imports (nearly 90%) and its rising energy demand. Russian oil had served as an economic stabilizer for India, moderating inflation and diversifying supply. The piece explains how sanctions, while aiming to reduce Russia's revenue, can paradoxically drive up global oil prices, impacting importing nations like India through increased inflation and economic instability. It emphasizes the vulnerability of critical chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and outlines India's long-term energy strategy, which includes expanding strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying sourcing, strengthening domestic exploration, and preserving strategic autonomy in a fragmented global energy landscape.

GS-II (International Relations - India's foreign policy, impact of policies of developed countries on India's interests); GS-III (Indian Economy - Macroeconomic trends, inflation, energy sector, infrastructure, external sector; Security - Energy security).

UPSC concepts in this story

These are durable syllabus ideas — use them for revision, not article memory.

India's Energy Security

India's energy security is paramount due to high import dependence (~90% crude), making it vulnerable to global geopolitical and market shocks. Diversificati...

Indian Economy 4 PYQs 1 developments

Exam Themes

Prelims Takeaways

  • India is the world's third-largest crude oil importer, importing nearly 90% of its needs.
  • India's energy demand is projected to rise due to industrialization, urbanization, and expanding mobility.
  • Russian oil imports helped India moderate inflationary pressures and diversify supply after 2022.
  • The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global oil transit chokepoint, through which a significant portion of India's crude oil and LPG imports pass.
  • Energy security now encompasses vulnerabilities from shipping restrictions, insurance controls, financial sanctions, payment barriers, and maritime security risks.
  • India's long-term energy strategy includes expanding strategic petroleum reserves, diversifying crude sourcing, strengthening domestic exploration, improving refining flexibility, accelerating gas infrastructure, expanding alternative energy pathways, and reducing dependence on vulnerable maritime chokepoints.

Elimination Traps

  • Assuming that sanctions always achieve their intended goal of reducing target country's revenue without unintended consequences.
  • Overlooking the complex interplay between geopolitical events, global energy markets, and domestic economic stability.
  • Misinterpreting India's 'strategic autonomy' in energy decisions as mere 'neutrality' rather than 'realism'.

Static Concepts

  • Energy security
  • Geopolitics of energy
  • Impact of sanctions on global trade
  • India's crude oil import dependence
  • Inflationary pressures from crude oil prices
  • Strategic importance of maritime chokepoints

Probable Question Areas

Question areas
  • Impact of global geopolitical events (e.g., Russia-Ukraine war, West Asia conflicts) on India's energy security and macroeconomic stability.
Question areas
  • Significance of key maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz for global and Indian energy trade.
Question areas
  • Measures adopted by India to enhance its energy security and diversify its energy basket.
Question areas
  • The role and effectiveness of economic sanctions in international relations and their unintended consequences on global markets.
Question areas
  • India's foreign policy approach and strategic autonomy in navigating a fragmented global energy order.
Conceptual Recurrence

Related Prelims PYQs

Ranked by topic match, theme match, recency, and recurring UPSC patterns.

UPSC Prelims 2020 Economy

The term 'West Texas Intermediate', sometimes found in news, refers to a grade of

  1. A. Crude oil
  2. B. Bullion
  3. C. Rare earth elements
  4. D. Uranium
Explanation
Correct answer
A. Crude oil

* The term "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI), often seen in news reports, refers to a grade of crude oil. WTI is used as a benchmark for oil pricing in North America. * Specifically, WTI is a light, sweet crude oil, meaning it has a low density and low sulfur content. This makes it easier and more desirable to refine into gasoline and other products. WTI serves as one of the main benchmarks for oil prices globally. * West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude are two of the most important global benchmarks for crude oil prices. Brent Index is used as a benchmark for oil pricing globally, including Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Indian Economy Current Affairs Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation External Sector & Capital Flows
UPSC Prelims 2022 Economy

With reference to the Indian economy, consider the following statements:

1. If the inflation is too high, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to buy government securities.
2. If the rupee is rapidly depreciating, RBI is likely to sell dollars in the market.
3. If interest rates in the USA or European Union were to fall, that is likely to induce RBI to buy dollars.

Which of the statements given below is/are correct?

  1. A. 1 and 2 only
  2. B. 2 and 3 only
  3. C. 1 and 3 only
  4. D. 1, 2 and 3
Explanation
Correct answer
B. 2 and 3 only

Statement 1 is incorrect. Typically, the RBI uses open market operations to sell government securities to drain money from the system and control inflation. Buying government securities would inject money into the system, potentially fueling inflation further. Statement 2 is correct. Selling dollars in the market - If the rupee is rapidly depreciating, the RBI might intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars from its reserves. This increased supply of dollars in the market can help stabilize the exchange rate and slow down the depreciation of the rupee. Statement 3 is correct. Lower interest rates in the US/EU make India a more attractive destination for foreign investment, leading to a large inflow of dollars. This causes the rupee to strengthen (appreciate). To prevent the rupee from appreciating too rapidly and hurting exporters, the RBI buys the excess dollars from the market.

Indian Economy Reserve Bank Of India & Monetary Policy Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation External Sector & Capital Flows
UPSC Prelims 2021 Economy

India Government Bond Yields are influenced by which of the following?
1. Actions of the United States Federal Reserve.
2. Actions of the Reserve Bank of India.
3. Inflation and short-term interest rates.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. A. 1 and 2 only
  2. B. 2 Only
  3. C. 3 Only
  4. D. 1, 2 and 3
Explanation
Correct answer
D. 1, 2 and 3

Statement 1 is correct: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates, can impact global capital flows. If the Fed raises interest rates, it can make US investments more attractive, potentially leading to some outflow of capital from India. This could affect demand for Indian government bonds and influence their yield. Statement 2 is correct: The RBI's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing Indian government bond yields. The RBI's actions like setting repo rates, open market operations, and cash reserve ratio (CRR) can affect the overall liquidity in the banking system. Higher liquidity can lead to lower yields, and vice versa. Statement 3 is correct: Inflation expectations and short-term interest rates are important factors for investors when considering the return on government bonds. Higher inflation expectations can lead investors to demand higher yields to compensate for the potential erosion of purchasing power. Similarly, short-term interest rates can act as a benchmark for bond yields. Therefore, all three factors significantly influence the yields of Indian government bonds.

Indian Economy Reserve Bank Of India & Monetary Policy Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation External Sector & Capital Flows
UPSC Prelims 2019 Economy

Consider the following statements:
1. CoaI sector was nationalized by the Government of India under Indira Gandhi.
2. Now, coal blocks are allocated on a lottery basis.
3. Till recently, India imported coal to meet the shortage of domestic supply, but now India is self- sufficient in coal production.

Which of the statements given above is/arc correct?

  1. A. 1 only
  2. B. 2 and 3 only
  3. C. 3 only
  4. D. 1, 2 and 3
Explanation
Correct answer
A. 1 only

Nationalisation: Yes, the coal sector was nationalised by the Indira Gandhi government in phases during the 1970s. Hence, Statement 1 is Correct. Coal block allocation: Coal blocks are not allocated through a lottery system. They are currently allocated through auctions, a shift from the previous system of administrative allocation. Hence, Statement 2 is Incorrect. Coal self-sufficiency: India is not entirely self-sufficient in coal production. While domestic production has increased, there is still a gap that is met through imports. Hence, Statement 3 is Incorrect.

Indian Economy Current Affairs External Sector & Capital Flows Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation
UPSC Prelims 2017 Economy

Which of the following has/have occurred in India after its liberalization of economic policies in 1991?

1. The share of agriculture in GDP increased enormously.
2. The share of India’s exports in world trade increased.
3. FDI inflows increased.
4. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased enormously.

Select the correct answer using the codes given below :

  1. A. 1 and 4 only
  2. B. 2, 3 and 4 only
  3. C. 2 and 3 only
  4. D. 1, 2, 3 and 4
Explanation
Correct answer
B. 2, 3 and 4 only

Statement 1 is Incorrect: Share of agriculture in GDP has actually decreased since 1991, as the service sector has grown significantly. Statement 2 is Correct: Share of India's exports in world trade has increased. India has become a more integrated part of the global economy, with a larger export footprint. Statement 3 is Correct: FDI inflows have increased considerably. The liberalisation measures made India a more attractive destination for foreign investment. Statement 4 is Correct: India's foreign exchange reserves have also increased enormously. This reflects India's improved ability to generate foreign currency and manage its external finances. Therefore, the correct answer is 2, 3, and 4 only. Hence, option B is the correct answer.

Indian Economy External Sector & Capital Flows Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation
UPSC Prelims 2022 Economy

With reference to the Indian economy, consider the following statements:

1. An increase in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) indicates the appreciation of rupee.
2. An increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indicates an improvement in trade competitiveness.
3. An increasing trend in domestic inflation relative to inflation in other countries is likely to cause an increasing divergence between NEER and REER.

Which of the above statements are correct?

  1. A. 1 and 2 only
  2. B. 2 and 3 only
  3. C. 1 and 3 only
  4. D. 1, 2 and 3
Explanation
Correct answer
C. 1 and 3 only

* Statement 1 is correct. The nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) is a measure of the value of a country's currency against a basket of other currencies weighted by their importance in trade. If NEER increases, it means that the value of the currency has increased relative to the currencies in the basket, indicating appreciation. * Statement 2 is incorrect. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) takes into account both nominal exchange rates and relative price levels (inflation) between countries. An increase in REER means that the country's currency is overvalued relative to its trading partners, which can reduce trade competitiveness. * Statement 3 is correct. If domestic inflation is higher than inflation in other countries, the real value of the domestic currency decreases faster than the nominal value, causing a divergence between NEER and REER. Therefore, the correct statements are 1 and 3.

Indian Economy External Sector & Capital Flows Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation
UPSC Prelims 2022 International Relations

Consider the following statements:

1. Vietnam has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world in recent years.
2. Vietnam is led by a multi-party political system.
3. Vietnam's economic growth is linked to its integration with global supply chains and focus on exports.
4. For a long time, Vietnam's low labor costs and stable exchange rates have attracted global manufacturers.
5. Vietnam has the most productive e-service sector in the Indo-Pacific region.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

  1. A. 2 and 4
  2. B. 3 and 5
  3. C. 1, 3 and 4
  4. D. 1 and 2
Explanation
Correct answer
C. 1, 3 and 4

Statements 1 and 3 are correct. Vietnam’s open economic policy of recent years integrating into global supply chains has made the growth success story possible. Vietnam's export-led growth strategy and global integration are among the key factors behind the country's remarkable achievements in growth and poverty. Vietnam was one among the few countries to post GDP growth rate figures in 2020 when the pandemic hit. Vietnam is projected to be the fastest-growing internet economy in Southeast Asia in the next 10 years. Statement 2 is not correct. Vietnam is a one-party communist state, not a multi-party parliamentary democracy. Statement 4 is correct. Thanks to an abundance of low-wage labour, Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew at a compound annual growth in the last decade. As the rest of East Asia developed and wages there rose, global manufacturers were lured by Vietnam's low labour costs and stable exchange rate. Hence, Statement 5 is not correct. According to the Asian Development Bank Report, e-services including digital financial services are at a very nascent stage in Vietnam.

International Relations Current Affairs Indian Polity & Governance External Sector & Capital Flows Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation Labor & Demographic Economics
UPSC Prelims 2019 Economy

Among the agricultural commodities imported by India, which one of the following accounts for the highest imports in terms of value in the last five years?

  1. A. Spices
  2. B. Fresh fruits
  3. C. Pulses
  4. D. Vegetable oils
Explanation
Correct answer
D. Vegetable oils

* The country's vegetable oil imports for the first six months of the oil year during November 2018 to April 2019 stood at 75,41,689 tonne, up about 3% from 73,18,295 tonne reported in the same period last year. * Vegetable oils account for the highest import in terms of value in the last five years. India relies on imports for 70 percent of its edible oil consumption.

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UPSC Prelims 2016 Economy

Which of the following best describes the term “import cover”, sometimes seen in the news?

  1. A. It is the ratio of the value of imports to the Gross Domestic Product of a country
  2. B. It is the total value of imports of a country in a year.
  3. C. It is the ratio between the value of exports and imports between the two countries
  4. D. It is the number of months of imports that could be paid for by a country’s international reserves
Explanation
Correct answer
D. It is the number of months of imports that could be paid for by a country’s international reserves

The term "import cover" refers to the number of months a country's foreign exchange reserves can finance its imports. It's a crucial indicator of a country's external trade stability and its ability to meet its import obligations.

Indian Economy Current Affairs External Sector & Capital Flows
UPSC Prelims 2025 Economy

Consider the following statements:

I. India has joined the Minerals Security Partnership as a member.
II. India is a resource-rich country in all the 30 critical minerals that it has identified.
III. The Parliament in 2023 has amended the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act, 1957 empowering the Central Government to exclusively auction mining lease and composite license for certain critical minerals.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

  1. A. I and II only
  2. B. II and III only
  3. C. I and III only
  4. D. I, II and III
Explanation
Correct answer
C. I and III only

Critical minerals are essential for modern technologies and clean energy, but many countries, including India, depend on imports for several of them. To strengthen supply chains, India has joined international partnerships and reformed mining laws. ✅ Statement I: Correct India joined the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) in 2023 to ensure reliable access to critical minerals. ❌ Statement II: Incorrect India is not resource-rich in all 30 critical minerals it has identified and remains import-dependent for several, like cobalt and nickel. ✅ Statement III: Correct In 2023, Parliament amended the Mines and Minerals Act, giving the Central Government power to auction leases for critical minerals.

Indian Economy Current Affairs Geopolitics & International Conflicts External Sector & Capital Flows Federal Structure & Centre State Relations