​Testing times: On India’s GDP growth data

The article analyzes India's provisional GDP growth data for 2025-26, pegged at 7.7%, noting resilience despite global headwinds. It highlights strong growth in manufacturing and services, and faster growth in Private Final Consumption Expenditure and Gross Fixed Capital Formation. However, it raises concerns about the significant slowdown in the agriculture sector's growth (3% from 4.2% previously), despite a good monsoon, and anticipates further challenges due to a predicted weaker monsoon and fertilizer supply constraints. The article also points to the increasing dominance of services in GVA and the stagnant share of manufacturing, suggesting a need for faster value-added manufacturing growth. Both the RBI and government predict a significant slowdown in growth for 2026-27.