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Should India incentivise bigger families?

12 June 2026 Source

Exam Summary

The article discusses India's shifting approach to population policy, moving from control to potentially incentivizing larger families due to a drop in the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 1.9, below the replacement rate of 2.1. It highlights Andhra Pradesh's cash incentives for third and fourth children and examines the socio-economic and political implications of such policies, including their limited effectiveness based on international experience, impact on federalism and parliamentary delimitation, and the challenges of an aging population. Experts argue that fertility trends are complex, rooted in socio-cultural factors and individual choices, and that economic incentives may disproportionately affect lower-income groups, potentially altering the composition of the working-age population. The article emphasizes the need for investment in skills, job opportunities, and geriatric care rather than direct population growth incentives, especially given India's large existing population base and the findings of studies like LASI and NFHS.

GS Paper 1: Population and associated issues, poverty and developmental issues, urbanization, their problems and their remedies. GS Paper 2: Welfare schemes for vulnerable sections of the population by the Centre and States and the performance of these schemes; mechanisms, laws, institutions and Bodies constituted for the protection and betterment of these vulnerable sections. Functions and responsibilities of the Union and the States, issues and challenges pertaining to the federal structure, devolution of powers and finances up to local levels and challenges therein.

UPSC concepts in this story

These are durable syllabus ideas — use them for revision, not article memory.

Exam Themes

Prelims Takeaways

  • India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.9, which is below the replacement rate of 2.1.
  • The replacement rate is the TFR required for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next, without migration.
  • Andhra Pradesh has announced cash incentives for women having their third and fourth child.
  • International experiences (e.g., Poland, Sweden, France, Singapore, Japan, South Korea) show limited and often short-term success of cash incentives in reversing fertility decline, primarily impacting lower-income demographics.
  • Falling fertility rates have implications for parliamentary delimitation and the demographic profiles of states, affecting federalism and political economy choices.
  • The Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI) projects that by 2050, 20% or more of the Indian population will be aged 60 and above, necessitating investment in geriatric care, pension schemes, and savings.
  • NFHS statistics for Andhra Pradesh indicate issues like early marriage (one in four women aged 20-24 married before 18), low women's asset ownership (30% of households), and low female workforce participation (48%).

Elimination Traps

  • Assuming direct cash incentives are a universally effective and sustainable solution for reversing fertility decline.
  • Overlooking the complex socio-cultural and economic factors that influence fertility rates beyond policy interventions.
  • Misinterpreting the short-term political implications of population changes (e.g., delimitation) with long-term demographic shifts and their broader societal impacts.

Static Concepts

  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
  • Replacement Rate
  • Demographic Dividend
  • Ageing Population
  • Parliamentary Delimitation
  • Federalism
  • Motherhood Penalty
  • Migration

Probable Question Areas

Question areas
  • Discuss the implications of India's declining Total Fertility Rate (TFR) on its demographic dividend and future workforce.
Question areas
  • Analyze the challenges and opportunities presented by an aging population in India, as highlighted by the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India (LASI).
Question areas
  • Evaluate the effectiveness and potential socio-economic consequences of government policies aimed at incentivizing population growth, drawing parallels with international experiences.
Question areas
  • Examine how differential fertility rates across Indian states could impact federalism, parliamentary representation, and inter-state migration patterns.
Question areas
  • What are the key findings of recent National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) regarding women's health, empowerment, and demographic indicators in India, particularly in states with low fertility rates?
Conceptual Recurrence

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UPSC Prelims 2023 Social Issues & Schemes

Consider the following statements :
Statement-I :India's public sector health care system largely focuses on curative care with limited preventive, promotive and rehabilitative care.
Statement-II: Under India's decentralized approach to health care delivery, the States are primarily responsible for organizing health services.

Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

  1. A. Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is the correct explanation for Statement-I
  2. B. Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I
  3. C. Statement-I is correct but Statement-II is incorrect
  4. D. Statement-I is incorrect but Statement-II is correct
Explanation
Correct answer
B. Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II is not the correct explanation for Statement-I

* Statement I is correct: India's public healthcare system prioritises curative care, which focuses on treating existing illnesses. Preventive, promotive, and rehabilitative care, which aims to prevent diseases, promote good health, and help people recover from illness, receive less emphasis. * Statement II is correct: India's healthcare system follows a decentralised approach. The central government sets policies and provides financial assistance, but individual states are responsible for organising and delivering health services to their populations. This allows for flexibility based on local needs and contexts.
Therefore, the answer is Both Statement I and Statement II are correct.

Social Justice & Development Indian Polity & Governance Welfare Schemes & Social Policies Federal Structure & Centre State Relations
UPSC Prelims 2013 Social Issues & Schemes

To obtain full benefits of demographic dividend, what should India do?

  1. A. Promoting skill development
  2. B. Introducing more social security schemes
  3. C. Reducing infant mortality rate
  4. D. Privatization of higher education
Explanation
Correct answer
A. Promoting skill development

To rip the maximum demographic dividend, India has to promote skill development. This is what the Economic Survey and 12th FYP have been advocating.

Indian Economy Social Justice & Development Labor & Demographic Economics Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
UPSC Prelims 2026 Social Issues & Schemes

Which of the following statements with regard to the persons with disabilities in India is/are correct ?

1. The Rights of Persons with Disabilities Act, an Act passed by the Parliament of India in 2018, mandates reservation in education and employment, places a legal duty on Governments to ensure accessibility and non-discrimination.
2. The Sugamya Bharat Abhiyan focuses on achieving universal accessibility for Persons with Disabilities across three key domains — built infrastructure, transport systems and information and communication technology.
3. The National Divyangjan Finance and Development Corporation (NDFDC) is a public sector organisation set up by the Ministry of Corporate Affairs as a not-for-profit company to promote entrepreneurship among Persons with Disabilities (PwDs).

Select the answer using the code given below :

  1. A. 1 and 2
  2. B. 2 only
  3. C. 1 and 3
  4. D. 1 only
Explanation
Correct answer
B. 2 only

Statement 1 is Incorrect: The Rights of Persons with Disabilities (RPwD) Act was passed by the Parliament of India in 2016, not 2018. It aligns with the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities and places a legal obligation on governments to ensure non-discrimination and accessibility. It also mandates reservations for PwDs, such as increasing the quota to 4% in government employment and 5% in higher education. Statement 2 is Correct: The Sugamya Bharat Abhiyan (Accessible India Campaign) was launched in 2015 by the Department of Empowerment of Persons with Disabilities (DEPwD). It focuses on achieving universal accessibility for Persons with Disabilities across three key domains: built infrastructure (barrier-free public buildings), transport systems (accessible railways, airports, and roads), and information and communication technology (accessible government websites and digital ecosystems). Statement 3 is Incorrect: The National Divyangjan Finance and Development Corporation (NDFDC) is a Central Public Sector Undertaking registered as a not-for-profit company to provide concessional financial assistance to promote entrepreneurship, self-employment, and higher education among PwDs. However, it was set up under the aegis of the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment, not the Ministry of Corporate Affairs. Therefore, the correct option is B.

Social Justice & Development Indian Polity & Governance Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
UPSC Prelims 2024 Social Issues & Schemes

With reference to the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan (PM-SYM) Yojana, consider the following statements:

1. The entry age group for enrolment in the scheme is 21 to 40 years.
2. Age specific contribution shall be made by the beneficiary.
3. Each subscriber under the scheme shall receive a minimum pension of ₹ 3,000 per month after attaining the age of 60 years.
4. Family pension is applicable to the spouse and unmarried daughters.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. A. 1,3 and 4
  2. B. 2 and 3 only
  3. C. 2 only
  4. D. 1, 2 and 4
Explanation
Correct answer
B. 2 and 3 only

With reference to the Pradhan Mantri Shram Yogi Maan-dhan (PM-SYM) Yojana, here's the breakdown of the statements: * Statement 1:  Incorrect. The eligible age group for enrolment in the scheme is 18 to 40 years, not 21 to 40 years. This allows younger workers to join early and contribute for a longer period. * Statement 2: Correct. Beneficiaries are required to make age-specific monthly contributions, which increase with age. For instance, contributions start at ₹55 for an 18-year-old and go up to ₹200 for a 40-year-old. * Statement 3: Correct. Subscribers will receive a minimum pension of ₹3,000 per month after attaining 60 years of age. This provides social security for workers in the unorganized sector. * Statement 4: Incorrect. Family pension is available only to the spouse, who will receive 50% of the pension amount after the subscriber's death. Unmarried daughters are not eligible for this benefit.

Indian Economy Social Justice & Development Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
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Consider the following statements in relation to Janani Suraksha Yojana:
1. It is safe motherhood intervention of the State Health Departments.
2. Its objective is to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality among poor pregnant women.
3. It aims to promote institutional delivery among poor pregnant women.
4. Its objective includes providing public health facilities to sick infants up to one year of age.

How many of the statements given above are correct?

  1. A. Only one
  2. B. Only two
  3. C. Only three
  4. D. All four
Explanation
Correct answer
B. Only two

Statement 1 is incorrect: Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY) is a 100% Centrally Sponsored Scheme under the National Health Mission (NHM). It is a central intervention implemented by states, not an intervention of the State Health Departments. Statement 2 is correct: The primary objective is to reduce maternal and neonatal mortality by encouraging safe, institutional births. Statement 3 is correct: The scheme provides a cash incentive to mothers to promote institutional delivery, particularly among those from BPL, SC, and ST households. Statement 4 is incorrect: While care for sick infants is a priority under the National Health Mission, the provision of free facilities for sick infants up to one year of age is specifically a feature of the Janani Shishu Suraksha Karyakram (JSSK) launched in 2011. JSY, launched in 2005, is primarily a conditional cash transfer scheme for delivery.

Social Justice & Development Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
UPSC Prelims 2019 Economy

With reference to land reforms in independent India, which one of the following statements is correct?

  1. A. The ceiling laws were aimed at family holdings and not individual holdings.
  2. B. The major aim of land reforms was providing agricultural land to all the landless.
  3. C. It resulted in cultivation of cash crops as a predominant form of cultivation.
  4. D. Land reforms permitted no exemptions to the ceiling limits.
Explanation
Correct answer
B. The major aim of land reforms was providing agricultural land to all the landless.

Land reform is a broad term: - It refers to an institutional measure directed towards altering the existing pattern of ownership, tenancy, and management of land. - It entails redistribution of the rights of ownership and/or use of land away from large landowners and in favour of cultivators with very limited or no landholdings. - At the time of independence, ownership of land was concentrated in the hands of a few. This led to the exploitation of the farmers and was a major hindrance towards the socio-economic development of the rural population. - Equal distribution of land was therefore an area of focus of Independent India's government. Laws for land ceilings were enacted in various states during the 50s & 60s, which were modified on the directives of the central government in 1972.

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UPSC Prelims 2019 Social Issues & Schemes

Consider the following statements about Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups (PVTGs) in India :
1. PVTGs reside in 18 States and one Union Territory.
2. A stagnant or declining population is one of the criteria for determining PVTG status.
3. There are 95 PVTGs officially notified in the country so far.
4. Irular and Konda Reddi Tribes are included in the list of PVTGs.

Which of the statements given above are correct?

  1. A. 1, 2 and 3
  2. B. 2, 3 and 4
  3. C. 1, 2 and 4
  4. D. 1, 3 and 4
Explanation
Correct answer
C. 1, 2 and 4

During the fourth Five-Year Plan, a sub-category was created within Scheduled Tribes, known as Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Groups, to identify groups that are considered to be at a lower level of development. Statement 1 is correct: PVTGs are spread over 18 states and one Union Territory (Andaman & Nicobar Islands) in India. Statement 2 is correct: The criteria for determining PVTG status include a pre-agricultural level of technology, a stagnant or declining population, extremely low literacy, and a subsistence-level of economy. Statement 3 is incorrect: As of now, there are 75 PVTGs officially notified in the country, not 95. Statement 4 is correct: Both Irular and Konda Reddi tribes are included in the list of PVTGs. So, the correct statements are 1, 2, and 4.

Social Justice & Development Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
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With reference to the 'Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matritva Abhiyan', consider the following statements:

1. This scheme guarantees a minimum package of antenatal care services to women in their second and third trimesters of pregnancy and six months post-delivery health care service in any government health facility.
2. Under this scheme, private sector health care providers of certain specialities can volunteer to provide services at nearby government health facilities.

Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

  1. A. 1 only
  2. B. 2 only
  3. C. Both 1 and 2
  4. D. Neither 1 nor 2
Explanation
Correct answer
B. 2 only

* Statement 1: Incorrect. The Pradhan Mantri Surakshit Matritva Abhiyan (PMSMA) provides a minimum package of antenatal care (ANC) services only during the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. It does not cover post-delivery health care services for six months. The focus is on ensuring safe pregnancies through early detection and management of high-risk cases. * Statement 2:  Correct. Under PMSMA, private sector health care providers (such as gynecologists, radiologists, and physicians) can volunteer to provide free services at nearby government health facilities on the 9th of every month. This public-private partnership enhances access to specialized care for pregnant women.

Social Justice & Development Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
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Operations undertaken by the Army towards upliftment of the local population in remote areas to include addressing of their basic needs is called:

  1. A. Operation Sankalp
  2. B. Operation Maitri
  3. C. Operation Sadbhavana
  4. D. Operation Madad
Explanation
Correct answer
C. Operation Sadbhavana

Operation Sadbhavana is a unique initiative undertaken by the Indian Army in Jammu & Kashmir and the North East regions. It focuses on winning the hearts and minds of the local population through various developmental activities and assistance. This includes providing education, healthcare, infrastructure development, and promoting skill development initiatives. _Let's look at the other options:_ * Operation Sankalp was launched by the Indian Navy to ensure maritime security in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. *  Operation Maitri refers to the Indian Armed Forces' humanitarian assistance and disaster relief operations to assist friendly countries. A notable example was the aid provided to Nepal during the 2015 earthquake. *  Operation Madad is the Indian Navy's effort to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief during natural calamities, both within India and to neighboring countries.

Social Justice & Development Indian Polity & Governance Welfare Schemes & Social Policies
UPSC Prelims 2018 Economy

Increase in absolute and per capita real GNP do not connote a higher level of economic development, if -

  1. A. industrial output fails to keep pace with agricultural output.
  2. B. agricultural output fails to keep pace with industrial output.
  3. C. poverty and unemployment increase.
  4. D. imports grow faster than exports.
Explanation
Correct answer
C. poverty and unemployment increase.

Economic Growth vs. Economic Development: An increase in absolute and per capita real GNP signifies economic growth, which means the overall production of goods and services in a country is expanding. Economic development is a broader concept that goes beyond just increasing production. It encompasses factors like
1. Improved living standards for citizens
2. Reduction in poverty and unemployment
3. Increased literacy and education levels
4. Improved healthcare and infrastructure If poverty and unemployment are increasing even with economic growth (GNP increase), it suggests the benefits of growth are not being shared widely. This indicates a lack of true economic development.

Indian Economy Social Justice & Development Macroeconomic Trends & Inflation Welfare Schemes & Social Policies