Moving from war to deal in a deeply divided region

The article analyzes a recent US-Iran deal, highlighting that military force alone is insufficient without a political settlement. It details the factors compelling both the US and Iran to negotiate, despite Israeli opposition. The deal's terms, including opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting sanctions, are discussed, alongside Iran's continued assertive posture and reliance on non-state actors. The piece also examines the negative impact on Gulf countries, exposing their fault lines and prompting a recalibration of their security strategies. It touches upon the reactions of Russia and China, and critically assesses India's initial alignment and subsequent need for a balanced, multi-aligned approach in West Asia to protect its energy security, trade, and diaspora interests. The article concludes by questioning the deal's durability and the potential for future conflicts.