Impact of El Niño on Indian Agriculture and Economy
El Niño causes deficient rainfall in India, threatening kharif and rabi crops, leading to potential food and fertilizer shortages, and impacting inflation an...
The article analyzes India's economic prospects in the wake of a potential resolution to the West Asian crisis and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to stabilize global crude oil prices. It discusses India's strong post-COVID-19 recovery but highlights potential risks for 2026-27, including disruptions in crude supply (initially) and a deficiency in rainfall due to El Niño, impacting agricultural output. The analysis covers GDP growth, inflation (WPI, CPI, IPD), fiscal prospects (tax revenues, subsidies, fiscal deficit), and the current account deficit. It emphasizes India's increasing dependence on crude oil imports, declining domestic production, and the need for strategic reserves, diversification of import sources, and a transition to alternative energy.
Durable syllabus ideas for revision — not article memory.
El Niño causes deficient rainfall in India, threatening kharif and rabi crops, leading to potential food and fertilizer shortages, and impacting inflation an...
India's energy security is challenged by high crude import dependence, falling domestic output, and rising demand. Strategies include diversifying import sou...
Previous year Prelims questions on overlapping themes and topics.
With reference to the Indian economy, consider the following statements:
1. If the inflation is too high, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to buy government securities.
2. If the rupee is rapidly depreciating, RBI is likely to sell dollars in the market.
3. If interest rates in the USA or European Union were to fall, that is likely to induce RBI to buy dollars.
Which of the statements given below is/are correct?
Statement 1 is incorrect. Typically, the RBI uses open market operations to sell government securities to drain money from the system and control inflation. Buying government securities would inject money into the system, potentially fueling inflation further. Statement 2 is correct. Selling dollars in the market - If the rupee is rapidly depreciating, the RBI might intervene in the foreign exchange market by selling dollars from its reserves. This increased supply of dollars in the market can help stabilize the exchange rate and slow down the depreciation of the rupee. Statement 3 is correct. Lower interest rates in the US/EU make India a more attractive destination for foreign investment, leading to a large inflow of dollars. This causes the rupee to strengthen (appreciate). To prevent the rupee from appreciating too rapidly and hurting exporters, the RBI buys the excess dollars from the market.
The term 'West Texas Intermediate', sometimes found in news, refers to a grade of
* The term "West Texas Intermediate" (WTI), often seen in news reports, refers to a grade of crude oil. WTI is used as a benchmark for oil pricing in North America. * Specifically, WTI is a light, sweet crude oil, meaning it has a low density and low sulfur content. This makes it easier and more desirable to refine into gasoline and other products. WTI serves as one of the main benchmarks for oil prices globally. * West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude are two of the most important global benchmarks for crude oil prices. Brent Index is used as a benchmark for oil pricing globally, including Europe, Asia, and Africa.
India Government Bond Yields are influenced by which of the following?
1. Actions of the United States Federal Reserve.
2. Actions of the Reserve Bank of India.
3. Inflation and short-term interest rates.
Which of the statements given above is/are correct?
Statement 1 is correct: The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions, particularly regarding interest rates, can impact global capital flows. If the Fed raises interest rates, it can make US investments more attractive, potentially leading to some outflow of capital from India. This could affect demand for Indian government bonds and influence their yield. Statement 2 is correct: The RBI's monetary policy plays a crucial role in influencing Indian government bond yields. The RBI's actions like setting repo rates, open market operations, and cash reserve ratio (CRR) can affect the overall liquidity in the banking system. Higher liquidity can lead to lower yields, and vice versa. Statement 3 is correct: Inflation expectations and short-term interest rates are important factors for investors when considering the return on government bonds. Higher inflation expectations can lead investors to demand higher yields to compensate for the potential erosion of purchasing power. Similarly, short-term interest rates can act as a benchmark for bond yields. Therefore, all three factors significantly influence the yields of Indian government bonds.
Consider the following statements:
1. CoaI sector was nationalized by the Government of India under Indira Gandhi.
2. Now, coal blocks are allocated on a lottery basis.
3. Till recently, India imported coal to meet the shortage of domestic supply, but now India is self- sufficient in coal production.
Which of the statements given above is/arc correct?
Nationalisation: Yes, the coal sector was nationalised by the Indira Gandhi government in phases during the 1970s. Hence, Statement 1 is Correct. Coal block allocation: Coal blocks are not allocated through a lottery system. They are currently allocated through auctions, a shift from the previous system of administrative allocation. Hence, Statement 2 is Incorrect. Coal self-sufficiency: India is not entirely self-sufficient in coal production. While domestic production has increased, there is still a gap that is met through imports. Hence, Statement 3 is Incorrect.
Which of the following has/have occurred in India after its liberalization of economic policies in 1991?
1. The share of agriculture in GDP increased enormously.
2. The share of India’s exports in world trade increased.
3. FDI inflows increased.
4. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased enormously.
Select the correct answer using the codes given below :
Statement 1 is Incorrect: Share of agriculture in GDP has actually decreased since 1991, as the service sector has grown significantly. Statement 2 is Correct: Share of India's exports in world trade has increased. India has become a more integrated part of the global economy, with a larger export footprint. Statement 3 is Correct: FDI inflows have increased considerably. The liberalisation measures made India a more attractive destination for foreign investment. Statement 4 is Correct: India's foreign exchange reserves have also increased enormously. This reflects India's improved ability to generate foreign currency and manage its external finances. Therefore, the correct answer is 2, 3, and 4 only. Hence, option B is the correct answer.
With reference to the Indian economy, consider the following statements:
1. An increase in Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) indicates the appreciation of rupee.
2. An increase in the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) indicates an improvement in trade competitiveness.
3. An increasing trend in domestic inflation relative to inflation in other countries is likely to cause an increasing divergence between NEER and REER.
Which of the above statements are correct?
* Statement 1 is correct. The nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) is a measure of the value of a country's currency against a basket of other currencies weighted by their importance in trade. If NEER increases, it means that the value of the currency has increased relative to the currencies in the basket, indicating appreciation. * Statement 2 is incorrect. The Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) takes into account both nominal exchange rates and relative price levels (inflation) between countries. An increase in REER means that the country's currency is overvalued relative to its trading partners, which can reduce trade competitiveness. * Statement 3 is correct. If domestic inflation is higher than inflation in other countries, the real value of the domestic currency decreases faster than the nominal value, causing a divergence between NEER and REER. Therefore, the correct statements are 1 and 3.
Consider the following statements:
1. Vietnam has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world in recent years.
2. Vietnam is led by a multi-party political system.
3. Vietnam's economic growth is linked to its integration with global supply chains and focus on exports.
4. For a long time, Vietnam's low labor costs and stable exchange rates have attracted global manufacturers.
5. Vietnam has the most productive e-service sector in the Indo-Pacific region.
Which of the statements given above are correct?
Statements 1 and 3 are correct. Vietnam’s open economic policy of recent years integrating into global supply chains has made the growth success story possible. Vietnam's export-led growth strategy and global integration are among the key factors behind the country's remarkable achievements in growth and poverty. Vietnam was one among the few countries to post GDP growth rate figures in 2020 when the pandemic hit. Vietnam is projected to be the fastest-growing internet economy in Southeast Asia in the next 10 years. Statement 2 is not correct. Vietnam is a one-party communist state, not a multi-party parliamentary democracy. Statement 4 is correct. Thanks to an abundance of low-wage labour, Vietnam's manufacturing sector grew at a compound annual growth in the last decade. As the rest of East Asia developed and wages there rose, global manufacturers were lured by Vietnam's low labour costs and stable exchange rate. Hence, Statement 5 is not correct. According to the Asian Development Bank Report, e-services including digital financial services are at a very nascent stage in Vietnam.
What is/are the purpose/purposes of Government’s ‘Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme’ and 'Gold Monetization Scheme'?
1. To bring the idle gold lying with India households into the economy
2. To promote FDI in the gold and jewellery sector
3. To reduce India’s dependence on gold imports
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
Statement 1 is correct: This is the primary objective of the Gold Monetization Scheme (GMS). The scheme encourages individuals and institutions to deposit their idle physical gold (jewellery, coins, bars) with banks. This gold is then melted, assayed, and added to the country's gold reserves, which can be lent to jewellers, thereby bringing it into the formal economy. Statement 2 is incorrect: These schemes are focused on managing domestic gold supply and demand. They are not designed to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Policies related to FDI in the jewellery sector are separate from these schemes. Statement 3 is correct: This is a core objective of both schemes.
* The Sovereign Gold Bond (SGB) Scheme provides a financial alternative to buying physical gold. By shifting demand from physical gold to paper gold, it helps reduce the demand for gold imports.
* The Gold Monetization Scheme (GMS) increases the domestic supply of recycled gold available to jewellers, thus reducing their reliance on imported gold. Both schemes aim to curb gold imports, which are a major component of India's import bill and contribute significantly to the Current Account Deficit (CAD).
In the context of India, which of the following factors is/are contributor/contributors to reducing the risk of a currency crisis?
1. The foreign currency earnings of India’s IT sector
2. Increasing the government expenditure
3. Remittances from Indians abroad
Select the correct answer using the code given below.
Statement 1 is correct: Foreign currency earnings - The IT sector generates foreign exchange through exports of services. This increases the supply of foreign currency reserves, making it easier to defend the rupee's value in the foreign exchange market during times of stress. Statement 2 is incorrect: While government spending can stimulate economic growth, it can also lead to a higher budget deficit. If the deficit is financed by excessive borrowing, it can put pressure on the currency if investors lose confidence in the government's ability to repay its debts. Statement 3 is correct: Remittances from abroad - When Indians working abroad send money back home, it adds to the inflow of foreign currency. This strengthens the country's foreign exchange reserves and provides a buffer against external shocks. Therefore, the correct code is 1 and 3 only.
Which of the following best describes the term “import cover”, sometimes seen in the news?
The term "import cover" refers to the number of months a country's foreign exchange reserves can finance its imports. It's a crucial indicator of a country's external trade stability and its ability to meet its import obligations.
Previous year Mains questions mapped to overlapping GS syllabus topics.
Does tribal development in India centre around two axes, those of displacement and of rehabilitation? Give your opinion.
Achieving sustainable growth with emphasis on environmental protection could come into conflict with poor people’s needs in a country like India – Comment.
How do you account for the growing fast food industries given that there are increased health concerns in modern society? Illustrate your answer with the Indian experience.
Discuss the evolution of collegium system in India. Critically examine the advantages and disadvantages of the system of appointment of the Judges of the Supreme Court of India and that of the USA.
Indian Constitution has conferred the amending power on the ordinary legislative institutions with a few procedural hurdles. In view of this statement, examine the procedural and substantive limitations on the amending power of the Parliament to change the Constitution.
Mahatma Jotirao Phule’s writings and efforts of social reforms touched issues of almost all subaltern classes. Discuss.
MCQs drawn from today's published current affairs.
The article explicitly states that 'For 2026-27, growth prospects are likely to be impacted because of the disruptions in crude supply and higher prices affecting the first quarter, and due to a deficiency in rainfall associated with the onset of El Niño.' It also mentions that IPD-based inflation is likely to be higher, not decline, and domestic crude oil production has fallen over time, not increased.
Statement 1 is correct: 'India’s dependence on imported crude oil has increased to more than 90% in 2025-26'. Statement 2 is incorrect: 'the volume of domestic production of crude oil has fallen over time to 26 million metric tons (MMT) in 2025-26 from a peak of 35.9 MMT in 2011-12.' Statement 3 is correct: 'the energy intensity of India’s output, as well as the intensity of use of PoL products in GDP, has fallen over time.'
The article states: 'With a resolution of the West Asian crisis, we consider WPI and CPI inflation rates for the full year to be lower at 6% and 4.5%; using weights of 60% and 40%, respectively, we can broadly estimate IPD-based inflation to be 5.4%.' The 1.1% was for 2025-26, and 4.5% and 8.0% are CPI and WPI projections respectively, not IPD.
Introduce India's energy dependence, detail challenges like import reliance and declining domestic production, then outline policy measures including diversification, strategic reserves, and the role of alternative energy.
Identify challenges like El Niño's impact on agriculture and potential fiscal pressures. Discuss specific policy interventions for agriculture (reserves, import/export policies) and fiscal management (tax revenues, subsidies, deficit).