UPSC Notes

El Niño and Indian Monsoon Dynamics

PYQs

Articles

Momentum

Phase IFoundation

Background

Overview

Understanding El Niño's impact is crucial for India's agricultural planning, water resource management, disaster preparedness (droughts), and overall economic stability, given the monsoon's vital role in the country's economy and livelihoods.

El Niño is a climate pattern describing the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, representing the warm phase of the larger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. This global climate driver significantly influences weather patterns worldwide, including the crucial Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, often leading to weaker-than-normal monsoon activity in India.

Phase IIStatic core

Facts & tables

Key facts

Impact on Indian Monsoon

Generally leads to weaker Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, with a stronger inverse relationship during the later half of the monsoon season (particularly September rainfall).

Historical Occurrence

Since 1950, 7 out of 16 El Niño years have resulted in below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.

Forecasting Authority

India Meteorological Department (IMD) assesses and issues seasonal and monthly forecasts, indicating likely El Niño development and its potential impact.

Forecast Accuracy

IMD's long-range forecasts provide seasonal rainfall predictions (e.g., 90-92% of Long Period Average with a model error).

Timing of Impact

Stronger inverse relationship with rainfall during the later half of the monsoon season (particularly September).

Historical Frequency

Since 1950, 7 out of 16 El Niño years have resulted in below-normal Indian monsoon rainfall.

Forecasting

India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts indicate the likely development of El Niño conditions, providing advance guidance.

Reference table

Static syllabus anchors

Type	Reference
Conceptual area	Climate Change & Conventions
Conceptual area	Physical & Regional Geography
Conceptual area	Climatology
Conceptual area	Oceanography

Reference table

Institutions & roles

Body	Role
India Meteorological Department (IMD)	Assesses, forecasts, disseminates warnings and data
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)	Oversees imd, promotes research in earth sciences
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)	Conducts experimental forecasting and research on enso impacts

Phase IIIExam lens

Prelims angle

Overview

Prelims angle: Multi-statement analysis

Prelims angle: Conceptual understanding

Quick revision

El Niño: Warming of eastern tropical Pacific, warm phase of ENSO.
Impact on Indian Monsoon: Generally weaker rainfall, particularly in September.
Forecasting: IMD provides seasonal, monthly, and daily forecasts, including El Niño updates.
Significance: Crucial for agriculture, water management, and disaster preparedness.
Government Response: IMD disseminates warnings to Central/State Governments for preparedness.

High-confidence PYQs

2026Factual recall, Multi-statement analysis

With reference to the climate of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which of the following statements is/are correct ? 1. The climate can be defined as a humid, t...

GeographyOpen question

Which of the following geographical features or phenomena is/are associated with the Peninsular Block of India ? 1. Submergence of parts of the western coas...

GeographyOpen question

Which of the following pairs of ancient and modern names of rivers is/are correctly matched ? 1. Vitasta : Chenab 2. Asikni : Jhelum 3. Parushni : Ravi 4. Ya...

Ancient HistoryOpen question

2026Multi-statement analysis, Conceptual understanding

With reference to the climate of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which of the following statements is/are correct ? 1. The climate can be defined as a humid, t...

GeographyOpen question

Which of the following geographical features or phenomena is/are associated with the Peninsular Block of India ? 1. Submergence of parts of the western coas...

GeographyOpen question

Which of the following pairs of ancient and modern names of rivers is/are correctly matched ? 1. Vitasta : Chenab 2. Asikni : Jhelum 3. Parushni : Ravi 4. Ya...

Ancient HistoryOpen question

2026Multi-statement analysis, Factual recall

With reference to the climate of Andaman and Nicobar Islands, which of the following statements is/are correct ? 1. The climate can be defined as a humid, t...

GeographyOpen question

Which of the following geographical features or phenomena is/are associated with the Peninsular Block of India ? 1. Submergence of parts of the western coas...

GeographyOpen question

Which of the following pairs of ancient and modern names of rivers is/are correctly matched ? 1. Vitasta : Chenab 2. Asikni : Jhelum 3. Parushni : Ravi 4. Ya...

Ancient HistoryOpen question

2025Statement-based questions, Conceptual understanding

Consider the following statements: I. Without the atmosphere, temperature would be well below freezing point everywhere on the Earth's surface. II. Heat abs...

GeographyOpen question

2023Multi-statement analysis, Factual recall

Consider the following statements: 1. Amarkantak Hills are at the confluence of Vindhya and Sahyadri Ranges. 2. Biligirirangan Hills constitute the easternmo...

GeographyOpen question

2022Factual recall, Multi-statement analysis

Consider the following pairs: Region often mentioned in the news - Country 1. Anatolia – Turkey 2. Amhara – Ethiopia 3. Cabo Delgado –Spain 4. Catalonia – I...

GeographyOpen question

2021Statement-based questions, Conceptual understanding

Consider the following statements: 1. In the tropical zone, the western sections of the oceans are warmer than the eastern sections owing to the influence of...

GeographyOpen question

Consider the following rivers: 1. Brahamani 2. Nagalwali 3. Subarnarekha 4. Vamsadhara Which of the above rise from the Eastern Ghats?

GeographyOpen question

2021Factual recall, Multi-statement analysis

Consider the following statements: 1. In the tropical zone, the western sections of the oceans are warmer than the eastern sections owing to the influence of...

GeographyOpen question

Consider the following rivers: 1. Brahamani 2. Nagalwali 3. Subarnarekha 4. Vamsadhara Which of the above rise from the Eastern Ghats?

GeographyOpen question

2020Statement-based questions, Conceptual understanding

With reference to Ocean Mean Temperature (OMT), which of the following statements is/are correct? 1. OMT is measured up to a depth of 26°C isotherm which is...

GeographyOpen question

2017Factual recall, Conceptual understanding

With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are corr...

GeographyOpen question

If you travel by road from Kohima to Kottayam, what is the minimum number of States within India through which you can travel, including the origin and the d...

GeographyOpen question

2017Multi-statement analysis, Conceptual understanding

With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are corr...

GeographyOpen question

If you travel by road from Kohima to Kottayam, what is the minimum number of States within India through which you can travel, including the origin and the d...

GeographyOpen question

Topic timeline

Climate Change & ConventionsPhysical & Regional GeographyClimatologyOceanography

Prelims 2017· Factual recall, Conceptual understanding

With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are corr...

El Niño and Indian Monsoon Dynamics

Overview

Key facts

Reference table

Reference table

Overview

Quick revision

High-confidence PYQs

Topic timeline

Related topics

Practice writing on this topic

UPSC Prelims PYQs on El Niño and Indian Monsoon Dynamics

Editorial & Review Process